Fantasy Football from The Fantasy Addicts

Fantasy Football Preview: Week 4

Fantasy football is a game of numbers.

Unfortunately, not everyone is good at math (see image above).  Luckily for you, I am.

1 O’Clock games

Detroit @ Chicago…Bears’ run D gives up 94 yards a game + Lions run for 105 yards a game = start Kevin Smith.  There’s no backfield committee in Detroit so Smith should account for most or all of that production.  Also, if the Lions can manage to get near the goal line against my Bears, then he will be the likely candidate to punch it in.  Calvin Johnson game 1 stats (90 yds) + game 2 stats (66 total yds, 1 td) = start Calvin.  The only thing that kept game 3 from being another productive outing was the td went to the wrong Johnson…Bryant instead of Calvin.  Look for him to bounce back this week.  Lions’ run D gives up 111 yards a game + Bears run for 71 yards a game = sit Matt Forte?  Yes.  And here are a few other reasons:  Forte was limited in Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury he suffered last week + he’s averaging only 2.5 yards per carry this season + LoLions held Portis to just 42 yards last week = sit Forte!  Lions’ pass D (30th overall) gives up 278 yards a game + Bears pass for 243 yards a game = start Jay Cutler.  Jason Campbell’s numbers against Detroit last week…340 yds and 2 td’s, which was by far his best game of the season.  Which Bears’ targets do I like this week?  Cutler has thrown 6 td passes this year and  Hester, Johnny Knox-ville and Olsen have accounted for all but 1 of them.

If Brenda had a fantasy football team, she would start Calvin every week. (227 TV show)

Cincinnati @ Cleveland…Browns’ run D (30th overall) gives up 184 yards a game + Bengals run for 112 yards a game = start Cedric Benson.  Quicksand legs-as I like to call him-averaged 4.8 yards a carry and scored a rushing td last week against the stingy Steeler run D.  Look for him to have a huge game in this one.  Cleveland’s pass D gives up 228 yards a game + Cincy passes for 187 yards a game = sit Carson Palmer.  His team won’t have to rely on his arm to win this one so I don’t see him posting great fantasy numbers.  Ocho Cinco is averaging 78 yards per game so I would start him in this one.  The Browns have 1 offensive td in their last 9 games = sit all Browns!  Note:  Next time you go to the bathroom and somebody asks where you’re going, tell them “I’m takin’ the Browns to the Super Bowl“, because that is likely the only way they will ever get there.

If Tyler Perry made a movie about the football team it would be much funnier.  (Meet the Browns)

Seattle @ Indianapolis…Colts’ run D gives up 125 yards a game + Seahawks run for 112 yards a game = start Julius Jones.  I hate to say it but the numbers don’t lie.  Jones should be in for a decent game against the Colts smaller defensive front.  Indy’s pass D (10th overall) gives up just 192 yards a game + Seneca Wallace is passing for 194 yards a game = sit Seneca.  For the same reason, I don’t like any of his receivers in this one.  Seattle’s pass D is giving up just 175 yards a game + Indy (1st overall) passes for 322 yards/game = something has to give.  I say it’s Seattle’s D so start Manning.  Reggie Wayne is 1st in receiving yards in the league + Dallas Clark is 4th = start both.  Pierre Garcon has emerged as another playmaker for the Colts with 2 td’s in his last 2 games.  However, he only has 7 catches on the season.  For that reason I say sit him because you’re really just hoping that he gets into the end zone if you start him and I don’t like those odds.  Seahawks’ run D gives up 139 yards a game + Colts run for just 86 yards a game = sit Addai.

NY Giants @ Kansas City…Chiefs’ run D gives up 119 yards/game + G-men run for 142 yards/game = start Brandon Jacobs.  KC pass D (20th overall) gives up 243 yards/game + NY passes for 249 yards/game = start Eli Manning.  Eli should end up in the neighborhood of 250 passing yards and 2 td’s.  Steve Smith has 23 catches, 277 yards and 2 td’s + Mario Manningham has 17 catches, 263 yards and 2 td’s = start both.  The Giants’ D did not give up a 1st down to Tampa last week until late in the 3rd quarter + their D is 2nd overall allowing just 245 total yards/game = sit all Chiefs.

Baltimore @ New England…Patriots’ D gives up just 88 rush yards a game + Ravens rush for 156 yards a game = something has to give.  Let’s take the average (88 + 156 = 244/2 = 122).  Ray Rice starts but McGahee gets all the td’s.  I say Ray Rice gets majority of the yards and the Pats D will tighten up in the red zone.  Start Ray Rice.  Sit McGahee.  NE’s pass D (7th overall) gives up just 174 yards/game +  B-more passes for 273 yards/game (5th overall) = something has to give, again.  The average would be 223.5 which is about how many yards I think Flacco will get in this one.  The Ravens are 2nd overall in scoring offense with 34 points/game so they should be able to get atleast a couple of scores in this one.  Flacco does a great job of spreading the ball around but if I had to pick one target to start, it would be Derrick Mason.  He leads the team with 196 receiving yards.  The Ravens’ run D (1st overall) gives up just 51 yards a game = sit all NE RB’s.  The Raven’s pass D (17th overall) gives up 231 yards a game + the Pats pass offense (3rd overall) gets 287 yards/game = start Tom Brady.  He should be up in the 275-300 yard range with atleast 2 td passes.  Moss has been Brady’s favorite target this year + Welker is a game time decision = start Moss.  If Welker can go, then start both.  If Welker can’t go, then I like Ben Watson who has 2 of Brady’s 3 td passes this year.

Tampa Bay @ Washington…Worst game ever?  Probably, but it still has fantasy relevance.  Redskins’ run D gives up 127 yards/game + Derrick Ward is likely out with a knee injury = start Cadillac Williams.  Washington’s pass D gives up 198 yards/game + Joe Johnson’s 1st start = sit Joe Johnson.  He’s replacing Leftwich and I’m sure there was a reason Leftwich began the season as the starter over Johnson.  Kellen Winslow is the Bucs leading receiver with 15 catches and 2 td’s, but I don’t trust starting him with a new QB this week.  Tampa’s run D (31st overall) gives up 187 yards/game + Portis should be playing in this one = start Portis.  I know he hasn’t done anything so far this year to warrant a start, but I have to hope that he can do it this week because I have him in 2 leagues.  The Bucs’ pass D gives up 245 yards/game + the ‘Skins pass for 249 yards a game = start Jason Campbell.  He should get somewhere between 250-300 yards and expect atleast one of his 2 top receivers-Moss or Cooley-to score in this one.  I would start both against that sorry Tampa D.

Tampa Bay vs. Washington 2009 has officially taken the title as worst game ever.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville…Jags’ run D gives up 100 yards/game + Titans run for 151 yards/game = start Chris Johnson.  Jags’ pass D (dead last overall) gives up 281 yards/game + Titans pass for 200 yards/game = start Kerry Collins if you don’t have a better option this week.  And if you are in need of a receiver I would go with Justin Gage.  He leads the team with 13 receptions.  Tennessee’s run D (2nd overall) gives up just 60 yards/game + the most rushing yards a RB has had this year against the Titans’ D is 46 by Leon Washington = sit Mo-Jo.  Titans’ pass D (29th overall) is giving up 274 yards/game = start David Garrard in deeper leagues if your QB is on bye.  Mike Sims-Walker has become Garrard’s favorite target with 6 receptions in each of their last 2 games.  Start him against the Titans who are giving up 23 points a game to their oppostion this season.

Mo-Jo might as well stay in bed Sunday morning.

Oakland @ Houston…Texans’ run D (dead last overall) gives up 205 yards/game + Raiders rush for 119 yards/game, which is dead last = something has to give.  I say it’s the Raiders.  Jamarcus Russell’s completion percentage is 41.3!  Shaq shoots free throws better than that.  Houston will gang up on the run with no fear of Jabooty beating them with his arm = sit McFadden.  Oakland’s run D (28th overall) gives up 155 yards a game + Houston runs for just 70 yards/game, which is 30th overall = something has to give.  Again, I say it’s the Raiders.  Matt Shaub has put up good fantasy numbers his last 2 games and will continue to do so against an average (14th overall) Raider pass D, which will open up the running game = start Shaub and Slaton.  Shaub will be going to his favorite targets in this one…Andre the Johnson and Owen Daniels.

The Raiders will be in a very giving mood Sunday, much like their security staff in this photo.

4 O’Clock games

NY Jets @ New Orleans…The game of the week.  Defense vs Offense.  Saints’ run D (5th overall) gives up just 67 yards/game + Jets run for 130 yards/game = sit Thomas Jones.  He and Leon Washington are sharing the duties, so I say they both get about 50 rushing yards.  However, Leon gets catches out of the backfield as well = start Leon Washington.  Orleans’ pass D (10th overall) gives up 245 yards/game + NY only passes for 185 yards/game = sit Mark ‘Dirty’ Sanchez.  He’ll manage this game well enough for the Jets to pull off the upset, but he won’t have great fantasy numbers.  I do, however, like his top 2 targets in this one, Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller.  Jets’ run D (9th overall) gives up just 82 yards/game + Saints run for 170 yards/game, which is 2nd overall = sit Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush.  I don’t like starting a RB in a committee when the team is only going to have about 100 total rushing yards for the game.  NY’s pass D (5th overall) gives up just 173 yards/game + Buffalo held Brees in check last week = sit Drew Brees!  Yeah, I said it.  The Jets D is better than the Bills D and I think Rex Ryan uses what Buffalo did last week to stifle Brees and the Saints’ vaunted passing attack.  Darrelle Revis shutdown Andre Johnson week 1 + Revis shutdown Randy Moss week 2 = sit Marques Colston.  So who do I like from the #1 overall offense this week?  Heath Evans.  The Saints will score 1 td in this game and by process of elimination I give it to Heath.  Allow me to show you the equation I used to come to this conclusion…Pierre, Reggie, Brees, Colston, Shockey = Heath Evans.  Final score:  Jets 24, Saints 13

Buffalo @ Miami…Marshawn Lynch is back + Dolphins’ run D (3rd overall) gives up just 66 yards/game = sit Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.  Miami’s pass D (26th overall) gives up 264 yards/game + Buffalo is passing for just 186 yards/game = Trent Edwards will have a decent game but not enough to warrant a fantasy start.  Last week TO was held without a reception for the first time since his rookie season in 1996, putting an end to a 185-game streak that was the third-longest in NFL history + Miami’s porous pass D = start TO.  I bet he’s in Trent Edwards’, Dick Jauron’s and anybody else’s ear that will listen to him about how the offense struggled because he didn’t get the ball last week.  Expect the Bills to target Owens early and often.  Chad Pennington is done for the season, which means we should see more wildcat in this one + Buffalo gave up 126 rushing yards to Pierre in the 2nd half last week = start Ronnie Brown.  Ted Ginn Jr has been too inconsistent for me to warrant a start this week.

St. Louis @ San Francisco…49ers’ run D (4th overall) gives up just 66 yards/game = sit Steven Jackson.  He’s been the only bright spot for the Rams this year but P-Willis and company will be ready for him.  Bulger is out and his replacement-Kyle Boller-threw 2 td passes last week, both to TE Daniel Fells.  The 49ers are 24th in pass defense + we don’t really know what to expect of Boller = I’m hoping the Rams can score some points in this game because my opponent has the 49ers’ D going against me, but I still wouldn’t recommend starting Boller.  Frank Gore is out for 3 weeks + Rams’ run D gives up 148 yards/game = start Glen Coffee.  Vernon Davis has finally emerged as San Fran’s go-2 receiver with 14 catches, 168 yards and 2 td’s.  I’m starting him this week with Tony Gonzalez on bye and I would suggest you do the same.

Dallas @ Denver…Another intriguing matchup.  Dallas’ 3rd ranked offense vs. Denver’s top ranked defense.  The real question here…Is Denver’s D for real?  They’ve played Cincy, Cleveland and Oakland so far this season and Cincy-ranked 24th overall-has the best offense of the 3.  Bronco’s run D gives up just 78 yards/game + Cowboys run for 193 yards/game, which is 1st overall + Marion Barber is back and Felix Jones is out = start Marion Barber.  He should get at or near 100 yards and have atleast 1 td in this one.  For that same reason I say sit Tashard Choice.  Broncos’ pass D (2nd overall) gives up just 136 yards/game.  This is in large part due to the fact they’ve played Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell the last 2 weeks.  Romo will do better than 136 yards but I don’t think he has a big day Sunday.  The Broncos have forced 8 turnovers through 3 games and I can see Romo giving the pigskin away a couple of times in this one.  I do, however, like Romo’s roomy…TE Jason Witten.  Dallas’ run D gives up 117 yards/game + Denver runs for 158 yards/game, which is 4th overall = start Knowshon Moreno.  Buckhalter is quietly averaging over 7 yards a carry this year, but Knowshon has more rushing attempts, which is why I give the nod to Moreno.  The Cowboys have given up yards to a few receivers this year, including Mark Clayton from Tampa Bay and to the Giants’ Steve Smith and Mario Manningham.  That leads me to conclude that Brandon Marshall could have a big game in this one = start Marshall.  Dallas poor pass D still is not enough to warrant a start from Mr. Fantasy Irrelevant, Kyle Orton.

Broncos’ fans had some bad things to say about head coach Josh McDaniels before the season started, but with a win this week they’ll be 4-0.

Sunday night game

San Diego @ Pittsburgh…Steelers’ run D (6th overall) is giving up just 76 yards/game + LT is just coming back from injury = sit LT.  Chargers rush for 66 yards/game, which is 31st overall = sit Darren Sproles too.  Pitt’s pass D (15th overall) is giving up 212 yards/game + Chargers pass for 315 yards/game, which is 2nd overall = start Philip Rivers.  Look for Rivers to go to his 2 favorite targets…V-Jax and Gates.  Willie Parker is doubtful for this one + Chargers’ run D gives up 142 yards/game = start Mendenhall?  I say no, because Pitt is rushing for only 81 yards/game + he’ll share carries with Mewelde Moore.  San Diego pass D gives up just 179 yards/game + Steelers pass for 265 yards/game = start Big Ben.  Pittsburgh just can’t get the running game going which means they’re relying on Rape-lisberger to win games for them.  Expect this one to be a shootout +  Hines Ward and San-antonio Holmes are the Steelers’ leading receivers = start both.

Rapelisberger can’t wait to give it to that San Diego D Sunday night in Pittsburgh.

Green Bay @ Minnesota…If Jets vs. Saints is the game of the week, then this has to be the game of the century!  Brett Favre facing the team that basically showed him the door after so many glorious seasons.  The pupil vs. the teacher…Aaron Rodgers vs. Favre.  There will be plenty of emotion in this one, but let’s put that aside and take a closer look at the numbers.  Vikings’ run D (12th overall) gives up 92 yards/game + Packers run for 105 yards/game = sit Ryan Grant.  Another reason would be that Grant hasn’t had a 100 yard game this season.  Vikes’ pass D (4th overall) gives up just 167 yards/game + Pack passes for 207 yards/game = sit Aaron Rodgers?  I say no.  Rodgers struggled week 1 but has put up 261 and 269 yards in his last 2 games + Minnesota has played Cleveland, Detroit and San Fran-neither of whom have a strong passing attack-so far = start Aaron Rodgers.  Rodgers will be going to his 2 favorite targets in this one, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.  Green Bay’s run D (23rd overall) gives up 128 yards/game +  Minny runs for 143 yards/game, which is 7th overall = start Adrian Peterson.  I’m looking for him to have a huge game in this one with atleast 2 td’s.  Packer’s pass D gives up 207 yards/game + Vikings pass for just 173 yards/game = sit Favre.  If the Vikings want to win Monday night, they will put the game on Peterson’s legs and not Brett’s arm.  Percy Harvin leads the team in receiving yards + he’s scored a td in each of the 1st 3 games = start him.

Team D/ST…The following are Team Defenses/Special Teams that I would start this week…Bears, Bengals, Colts, Giants, Texans, Jets and 49ers.

Survivor Pick…Giants over the Chiefs.  If you’ve already used the G-men, then go with Cincinnati over Cleveland or Indianapolis over Seattle.

Mathematical upset predictions…Jets over Saints and Broncos over Cowboys.

Well, I hope all you peters learned something today.